Risk of Double Dip Recession in 2010

"The recovery will be slow and things will be fairly fragile," and that might be the best we can hope for in 2010, according to Nariman Behravesh chief economist at Global Insight, the world's largest economic forecasting and consulting firm.

"Any number of risk could knock us back down into recession," Behravesh tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip. These risks include botched monetary policy by the Fed, a major retrenchment of consumer spending in the face of rising unemployment, and another chapter to the financial crisis.

Behravesh isn't saying it's the most likely scenario; but at 20% the probability is "too high" for his liking.

On the flip side, he forecasts an equally high probability of a strong recovery. "There's a lot of pent up demand for consumer spending for cars, for housing," he says. "And that could be released a lot sooner and lot more powerfully than anyone is talking about."

But the more likely scenario is a slow and sluggish economic recovery, Behravesh says, predicting unemployment remains high in 2010, peaking at 10% before falling back to the 9% range by year's end. That will provide a headwind for consumers, who will spend at a slower rate than in the past